Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jan 29th, 2025

Rabinder Dhillon • January 29, 2025

Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points to 3%, announces end of quantitative tightening.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

January 29, 2025

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3%, with the Bank Rate at 3.25% and the deposit rate at 2.95%.1 The Bank is also announcing its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening. The Bank will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.2

Projections in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR) published today are subject to more-than-usual uncertainty because of the rapidly evolving policy landscape, particularly the threat of trade tariffs by the new administration in the United States. Since the scope and duration of a possible trade conflict are impossible to predict, this MPR provides a baseline forecast in the absence of new tariffs.

In the MPR projection, the global economy is expected to continue growing by about 3% over the next two years. Growth in the United States has been revised up, mainly due to stronger consumption. Growth in the euro area is likely to be subdued as the region copes with competitiveness pressures. In China, recent policy actions are boosting demand and supporting near-term growth, although structural challenges remain. Since October, financial conditions have diverged across countries. US bond yields have risen, supported by strong growth and more persistent inflation. In contrast, yields in Canada are down slightly. The Canadian dollar has depreciated materially against the US dollar, largely reflecting trade uncertainty and broader strength in the US currency. Oil prices have been volatile and in recent weeks have been about $5 higher than was assumed in the October MPR.

In Canada, past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy. The recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak. The outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.

Canada’s labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.

The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025. However, with slower population growth because of reduced immigration targets, both GDP and potential growth will be more moderate than was expected in October. Following growth of 1.3% in 2024, the Bank now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth. As a result, excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed over the projection horizon.

CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected. A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2%. The Bank forecasts CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.

Setting aside threatened US tariffs, the upside and downside risks around the outlook are reasonably balanced. However, as discussed in the MPR, a protracted trade conflict would most likely lead to weaker GDP and higher prices in Canada.

With inflation around 2% and the economy in excess supply, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to 3%. The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial. Lower interest rates are boosting household spending and, in the outlook published today, the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested. We will be following developments closely and assessing the implications for economic activity, inflation and monetary policy in Canada. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 12, 2025. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on April 16, 2025.

Footnotes

1. Effective January 30, the deposit rate will be set at 5 basis points below the Bank’s policy interest rate to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation. For more details, see the market notice published simultaneously with this press release.[←]
2. A market notice published simultaneously with this press release provides operational details.[←]

Read the January 29th, 2025 Monetary Report.

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Financing For A Second Home

By Rabinder Dhillon • April 30, 2025

If you’ve been thinking about buying a second property and you’re looking to put some of the pieces together, you’ve come to the right place! Whether you’re looking to buy a vacation property, start a rental portfolio, or help accommodate a family member, there are many reasons to buy a second property (while keeping your existing property), which might make sense for you! Now, while there are many great reasons to buy a second property, there is also a lot to know as you walk through the process. The key here is to have absolute clarity around your why. Ask yourself, why do you want to buy a second property? This isn’t a decision to be taken lightly or one that should be made too quickly. Buying a second property should be a strategic decision that allows you to accomplish your goals, and it should include an assessment of your overall financial health. So with clear goals in mind, the best place to start the process is to have a conversation with an independent mortgage professional. This will allow you to assess your financial situation, outline the costs, and put together a plan to make it happen. While purchasing a second property is similar to buying a primary residence, there are some key differences. Just because you’ve qualified in the past for your existing mortgage doesn’t mean you’ll qualify to purchase a second property. One key difference is the amount of downpayment you might be required to come up with. A property that is owner-occupied or occupied by a family member on a rent-free basis will require less of a downpayment than if the second property will be used to generate an income. So, depending on the property's intended use, you might have to come up with as much as 25%-35% down. This is where strategic planning comes in. Consider unlocking the equity in your existing home to finance the downpayment to purchase your second home. Here are a few ways you can go about doing that: Securing a new mortgage if you own your property clear title Refinancing your existing mortgage to access additional funds Securing a home equity line of credit (HELOC) Getting a second mortgage behind your existing first mortgage Securing a reverse mortgage The conversation about buying a second property should include assessing your overall financial health, leveraging your existing assets to lower your overall cost of borrowing, and figuring out the best way to accomplish your goals. And as it's impossible to outline every scenario in a simple blog post, if you’d like to discuss your goals and put a plan together to finance a second property, connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

Cashback Mortgage Financing

By Rabinder Dhillon • April 23, 2025

As the name implies, a cashback mortgage is similar to a standard mortgage, except that you receive a lump sum of cash upon closing. This lump sum will either be a fixed amount of money or a percentage of the mortgage amount, usually between 1-7%, depending on the mortgage term selected. How you use the cash is entirely up to you. Some of the most common reasons to secure a cashback mortgage are to: Cover closing costs. Buy new furniture. Renovate your property. Supplement cashflow. Consolidate higher-interest debt. Really, you can use the cash for anything you like. It’s tax-free and paid to you directly once the mortgage closes. Understanding the cost of a cashback mortgage. Now, while it might appear like a cashback mortgage is a great way to get some free money, it’s not. Banks aren’t altruistic; they’re in the business of making money by lending money. Securing a mortgage that provides you with cash back at closing will cost you a higher interest rate over your mortgage term. A cashback mortgage is like getting a fixed loan rolled into your mortgage. Your interest rate is increased to cover the additional funds being lent. Now, with so many different cashback options available and with interest rates constantly changing, it's nearly impossible to run through specific calculations on a simple article to outline how much more you’d pay over the term. So, if you'd like to identify the true cost of securing a cashback mortgage, the best place to start is to discuss your financial situation with an independent mortgage professional. When you work with an independent mortgage professional instead of a single bank, you receive unbiased advice, more financing options, and a clear picture of the cost associated with securing a mortgage. Getting cashback at closing is a mortgage feature that makes the bank more money at your expense. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing; the key is to be informed of the costs involved so you can make a good decision. Eligibility for a cashback mortgage. Simply put, a cashback mortgage isn’t for everyone. This is a mortgage product that has tougher qualifications than standard mortgage financing. Any lender willing to offer a cashback mortgage will want to see that you have stable employment, a fabulous credit score, and healthy debt service ratios. If your mortgage application is in any way “unique,” the chances of qualifying for a cashback mortgage are pretty slim. Breaking your mortgage term early. In addition to paying a higher interest rate to cover the cost of receiving the cashback at closing, a cashback mortgage also limits your options down the line. If your life circumstances change and you need to break your mortgage mid-term, depending on the conditions set out in your mortgage contract, you’ll most likely be required to either pay all of the cashback received or at least a portion, depending on how long you’ve had the mortgage. As all cashback mortgages are tied to fixed-rate terms, so in addition to repaying the cashback, you’d also be required to pay the interest rate differential penalty; or 3 months interest, whichever is greater for breaking your mortgage term early. Sufficed to say, should you need to pay out your mortgage early, breaking your cashback mortgage will be costly. Certainly, this is something to consider when assessing the suitability of this mortgage product. Get independent mortgage advice. Understanding the intricacies of mortgage financing can be difficult at the best of times. With all the different terms, rates, and mortgage products available, it’s hard to know which mortgage is best for you. So while a mortgage that offers a cash incentive upon closing might initially seem like an attractive offer, make sure you seek out the guidance of an independent mortgage professional to help you navigate the costs associated with a cashback mortgage. While it might be a great option for you, there might be other mortgage options that better suit your needs. It's worth a conversation for sure! If you’d like to discuss what a cashback mortgage or any other mortgage product would look like for you, please get in touch. It would be a pleasure to work with you.