Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jul 12th, 2023

Rabinder Dhillon • July 12, 2023

Bank of Canada raises policy rate 25 basis points, continues quantitative tightening.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

July 12, 2023

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Global inflation is easing, with lower energy prices and a decline in goods price inflation. However, robust demand and tight labour markets are causing persistent inflationary pressures in services. Economic growth has been stronger than expected, especially in the United States, where consumer and business spending has been surprisingly resilient. After a surge in early 2023, China’s economic growth is softening, with slowing exports and ongoing weakness in its property sector. Growth in the euro area is effectively stalled: while the service sector continues to grow, manufacturing is contracting. Global financial conditions have tightened, with bond yields up in North America and Europe as major central banks signal further interest rate increases may be needed to combat inflation.

The Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projects the global economy will grow by around 2.8% this year and 2.4% in 2024, followed by 2.7% growth in 2025.

Canada’s economy has been stronger than expected, with more momentum in demand. Consumption growth has been surprisingly strong at 5.8% in the first quarter. While the Bank expects consumer spending to slow in response to the cumulative increase in interest rates, recent retail trade and other data suggest more persistent excess demand in the economy. In addition, the housing market has seen some pickup. New construction and real estate listings are lagging demand, which is adding pressure to prices. In the labour market, there are signs of more availability of workers, but conditions remain tight, and wage growth has been around 4-5%. Strong population growth from immigration is adding both demand and supply to the economy: newcomers are helping to ease the shortage of workers while also boosting consumer spending and adding to demand for housing.

As higher interest rates continue to work their way through the economy, the Bank expects economic growth to slow, averaging around 1% through the second half of this year and the first half of next year. This implies real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024. The economy will move into modest excess supply early next year before growth picks up to 2.4% in 2025.

Inflation in Canada eased to 3.4% in May, a substantial and welcome drop from its peak of 8.1% last summer. While CPI inflation has come down largely as expected so far this year, the downward momentum has come more from lower energy prices, and less from easing underlying inflation. With the large price increases of last year out of the annual data, there will be less near-term downward momentum in CPI inflation. Moreover, with three-month rates of core inflation running around 3½-4% since last September, underlying price pressures appear to be more persistent than anticipated. This is reinforced by the Bank’s business surveys, which find businesses are still increasing their prices more frequently than normal.

In the July MPR projection, CPI inflation is forecast to hover around 3% for the next year before gradually declining to 2% in the middle of 2025. This is a slower return to target than was forecast in the January and April projections. Governing Council remains concerned that progress towards the 2% target could stall, jeopardizing the return to price stability.

In light of the accumulation of evidence that excess demand and elevated core inflation are both proving more persistent, and taking into account its revised outlook for economic activity and inflation, Governing Council decided to increase the policy interest rate to 5%. Quantitative tightening is complementing the restrictive stance of monetary policy and normalizing the Bank’s balance sheet. Governing Council will continue to assess the dynamics of core inflation and the outlook for CPI inflation. In particular, we will be evaluating whether the evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behaviour are consistent with achieving the 2% inflation target. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 6, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the Monetary Policy Report on October 25, 2023.

Read the July 12th, 2023 Monetary Policy Report

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Mortgage Financing For Home Renos

By Rabinder Dhillon • May 28, 2025

If you’re looking to do some home renovations but don’t have all the cash up front to pay for materials and contractors, here are a few ways to use mortgage financing to bring everything together. Existing Home Owners - Mortgage Refinance Probably the most straightforward solution, if you’re an existing homeowner, would be to access home equity through a mortgage refinance. Depending on the terms of your existing mortgage, a mid-term mortgage refinance might make good financial sense; there’s even a chance of lowering your overall cost of borrowing while adding the cost of the renovations to your mortgage. As your financial situation is unique, it never hurts to have the conversation, run the numbers, and look at your options. Let’s talk! If you're not in a huge rush, it might be worth waiting until your existing term is up for renewal. This is a great time to refinance as you won’t incur a penalty to break your existing mortgage. Now, regardless of when you refinance, mid-term or at renewal, you’re able to access up to 80% of the appraised value of your home, assuming you qualify for the increased mortgage amount. Home Equity Line of Credit Instead of talking with a bank about an unsecured line of credit, if you have significant home equity, a home equity line of credit (HELOC) could be a better option for you. An unsecured line of credit usually comes with a pretty high rate. In contrast, a HELOC uses your home as collateral, allowing the lender to give you considerably more favourable terms. There are several different ways to use a HELOC, so if you’d like to talk more about what this could look like for you, connect anytime! Buying a Property - Purchase Plus Improvements If you’re looking to purchase a property that could use some work, some lenders will allow you to add extra money to your mortgage to cover the cost of renovations. This is called a purchase plus improvements. The key thing to keep in mind is that the renovations must increase the value of the property. There is a process to follow and a lot of details to go over, but we can do this together. So if you’d like to discuss using your mortgage to cover the cost of renovating your home, please connect anytime!

Don't Accidentally Buy A Home

By Rabinder Dhillon • May 21, 2025

Buying a property might actually be easier than you think. So, if you have NO desire AT ALL to qualify for a mortgage, here are some great steps you can take to ensure you don’t accidentally buy a property. Fair warning, this article might get a little cheeky. Quit your job. First things first, ditch that job. One of the best ways to make sure you won’t qualify for a mortgage is to be unemployed. Yep, most mortgage lenders aren’t in the practice of lending money to unemployed people! If you already have a preapproval in place and don’t want to go through with financing, no problems. Unexpectedly quit your job mid-application. Because, even if you’re making a lateral move or taking a better job, any change in employment status can negatively impact your approval. Spend All Your Savings. To get a mortgage, you’ll have to bring some money to the table. In Canada, the minimum downpayment required is 5% of the purchase price. Now, if the goal is not to get a mortgage, spending all your money and having absolutely nothing in your account is a surefire way to ensure you won’t qualify for a mortgage. So, if you’ve been looking for a reason to go out and buy a new vehicle, consider this your permission. Collect as Much Debt as Possible. After quitting your job and spending all your savings, you should definitely go out and incur as much debt as possible! The higher the payments, the better. You see, one of the main qualifiers on a mortgage is called your debt-service ratio. This takes into count the amount of money you make compared to the amount of money you owe. So the more debt you have, the less money you’ll have leftover to finance a home. Stop Making Your Debt Payments So let’s say you can’t shake your job, you still have a good amount of money in the bank, and you’ve run out of ways to spend money you don’t have. Don’t panic; you can still absolutely wreck your chances of qualifying for a mortgage! Just don’t pay any of your bills on time or stop making your payments altogether. Why would any lender want to lend you money when you have a track record of not paying back any of the money you’ve already borrowed? Provide Ugly Supporting Documentation. Now, if all else fails, the last chance you have to scuttle your chances of getting a mortgage is to provide the lender with really ugly documents. To support your mortgage application, lenders must complete their due diligence. Here are three ways to make sure the lender won’t be able to verify anything. Firstly, and probably the most straightforward, make sure your name doesn’t appear anywhere on any of your statements. This way, the lender can’t be sure the documents are actually yours or not. Secondly, when providing bank statements to prove downpayment funds, make sure there are multiple cash deposits over $1000 without explaining where the money came from. This will look like money laundering and will throw up all kinds of red flags. And lastly, consider blacking out all your “personal information.” Just use a black Sharpie and make your paperwork look like classified FBI documents. Follow-Through So there you have it, to avoid an accidental home purchase, you should quit your job, spend all your money, borrow as much money as possible, stop making your payments, and make sure the lender can’t prove anything! This will ensure no one will lend you money to buy a property! Now, on the off chance that you’d actually like to qualify for a mortgage, you’ve come to the right place. The suggestion would be to actually keep your job, save for a downpayment, limit the amount of debt you carry, make your payments on time, and provide clear documentation to support your mortgage application! If you'd like to make sure you're on the right track, connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to walk through the mortgage process with you.