Is Now the Right Time to Buy? A Look at Canada's 2026 Housing Market

Rabinder Dhillon • March 17, 2026

A Deep Dive into the 2026 Canadian Real Estate Landscape

For many Canadians, the dream of homeownership has felt like a moving target. After years of market volatility, shifting interest rates, and economic uncertainty, you might be wondering: is 2026 finally the year to make a move?

It's the biggest financial question for many households, and the answer isn't a simple yes or no. It depends on your personal circumstances, financial readiness, and where you are in the country. Let's break down the key factors shaping Canada's 2026 housing market so you can decide if now is the right time for you.

The National Picture: A Market in Transition

After a period of correction, Canada's housing market is showing signs of a gradual recovery, but it's not the frenzied pace we saw during the pandemic. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) forecasts a 5.1% increase in home sales in 2026, driven by pent-up demand from buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines.

However, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) notes that sales will likely remain below historical averages, with the market facing headwinds from a slower economy, modest income growth, and elevated unemployment levels.

What to Expect in 2026

  • National Home Sales: Recovery is underway with a 5.1% increase expected, driven by pent-up demand. However, sales will still remain below historical highs as economic uncertainty continues to weigh on buyer confidence.
  • National Average Price: Prices are forecast to rise modestly by 2.8% to $698,881. This represents steady, sustainable growth rather than the sharp spikes we saw during the pandemic years.
  • New Construction: Housing starts are projected to decline as developers face high construction costs, weaker demand, and rising inventories of unsold units. Fewer new homes being built could put upward pressure on prices in the long term.
  • Mortgage Rates: Variable rates are holding steady while fixed rates remain uncertain. The current rate environment offers some stability, but affordability continues to be a key challenge for many buyers.

Interest Rates: The Elephant in the Room

Mortgage rates have been a major factor for homebuyers. The good news is that the Bank of Canada has held its policy interest rate at 2.25% in early 2026, providing some stability for variable-rate mortgages. However, fixed rates may still see some upward pressure.

Many homeowners who secured ultra-low rates during the pandemic are now facing renewals at higher rates, which is tightening household budgets. For new buyers, the current rate environment is a significant improvement from the highs of 2024, but affordability remains a key challenge.

Regional Deep Dive: Where Are the Opportunities?

Canada's housing market is not a monolith. The story is very different depending on where you live.

Ontario & British Columbia: The Rebound

These two provinces, which saw the most significant downturns, are now poised for the strongest rebounds. CREA projects sales to increase by over 8% in both Ontario and BC in 2026. This is largely driven by pent-up demand from buyers who have been waiting for prices to stabilize.

However, the CMHC warns that housing starts in Ontario are projected to fall to near two-decade lows, which could put upward pressure on prices in the long run.

The Prairies & Quebec: Steady and Affordable

Markets in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Quebec have remained more stable and are expected to see continued growth, albeit at a more moderate pace. Alberta, in particular, stands out for its relative affordability, with prices well below the national average.

The First-Time Homebuyer Opportunity

If you're a first-time homebuyer, 2026 could present a unique window of opportunity. After years of being priced out, many are finding that the combination of lower prices and stabilized interest rates has brought homeownership back within reach.

Furthermore, the government has introduced several programs to help first-time buyers, including:

  • First-Time Home Buyers' GST/HST Rebate: A new rebate designed to help you recover some of the taxes paid on a new home.
  • Home Buyers' Plan (HBP): The withdrawal limit from your RRSP has been increased to $60,000, giving you more flexibility to fund your down payment.
  • First Home Savings Account (FHSA): A powerful savings tool that allows you to save for a down payment tax-free, helping you build your nest egg faster.

So, Is It Your Time to Buy?

While the market is showing positive signs, the decision to buy a home is deeply personal. Here are a few questions to ask yourself:

  • Is my income stable and secure? Job security is crucial when taking on a mortgage commitment that could last decades.
  • Have I saved a sufficient down payment? A larger down payment not only reduces your mortgage but can also help you avoid costly mortgage insurance.
  • Is my credit score in good shape? Your credit score directly impacts the mortgage rates you'll qualify for and could save you thousands over the life of your loan.
  • Am I prepared for the long-term costs of homeownership? Beyond the mortgage, you'll need to budget for property taxes, maintenance, insurance, and unexpected repairs.

Navigating the housing market can be complex, but you don't have to do it alone. A trusted mortgage professional can help you understand your options, get pre-approved, and determine if now is the right time for you to enter the market.

Ready to explore your options? Let's talk. I can help you make sense of the market and find a mortgage solution that fits your life and your goals.

RABINDER
MORTGAGE BROKER

LET'S CONNECT

What Is a Cashback Mortgage and How Does It Work?

By Rabinder Dhillon • March 11, 2026
Cashback Mortgages: Are They Worth It? Here’s What You Need to Know If you’ve been exploring mortgage options and come across the term cashback mortgage , you might be wondering what exactly it means—and whether it’s a smart move. Let’s break it down in simple terms. What Is a Cashback Mortgage? A cashback mortgage is just like a regular mortgage—but with one extra feature: you receive a lump sum of cash when the mortgage closes . This cash is typically: A fixed amount , or A percentage of the total mortgage , usually between 1% and 7% , depending on your mortgage term and lender. The money is tax-free and paid directly to you on closing day. What Can You Use the Cashback For? There are no restrictions on how you use the funds. Here are some common uses: Covering closing costs Buying new furniture Renovations or home upgrades Paying off high-interest debt Boosting your cashflow during a tight transition Whether it’s to help you settle in or catch up financially, cashback can offer a helpful buffer— but it comes at a cost . The True Cost of a Cashback Mortgage Here’s the part many people overlook: cashback mortgages come with higher interest rates than standard mortgages. Why? Because the lender is essentially advancing you a small loan upfront—and they’re going to make that money back (and then some) through your mortgage payments. So while the upfront cash feels like a bonus, you’ll pay more in interest over time to have that convenience. Breaking Down the Numbers It’s hard to give a blanket answer about how much more you’ll pay since it depends on: Your interest rate The cashback amount The mortgage term Your payment schedule This is why it’s important to run the numbers with a mortgage professional who can help you compare this option with others based on your personal financial situation. Are You Eligible for a Cashback Mortgage? Not everyone qualifies. Cashback mortgages generally come with stricter requirements . Lenders often want to see: Excellent credit history Strong, stable income Low debt-to-income ratio If your mortgage file includes anything “outside the box”—like being self-employed or recently changing jobs—qualifying for a cashback mortgage might be tough. What If You Need to Break the Mortgage? This is one of the biggest risks with cashback mortgages. If your circumstances change and you need to break your mortgage early, you could be on the hook for: Paying back some or all of the cashback you received, and A prepayment penalty (typically the interest rate differential or 3 months’ interest—whichever is higher) That can be a very expensive combination. So if there’s even a chance you might need to sell, refinance, or move before your term is up, a cashback mortgage might not be the best fit. Should You Consider a Cashback Mortgage? Maybe—but only with eyes wide open. Cashback mortgages can be helpful in the right scenario, but they’re not free money. They’re a lending tool that benefits the lender , and the key is knowing exactly what you’re agreeing to. Final Thoughts: Talk to an Expert First Choosing the right mortgage isn’t just about the lowest rate or the biggest perk—it’s about making a choice that fits your whole financial picture. If you’re considering a cashback mortgage, or just want to explore all your options, let’s talk. As an independent mortgage professional , I can help you weigh the pros and cons of various products, so you can make a confident, informed decision. Have questions? I’d be happy to help—reach out anytime.

Divorce and Your Mortgage: What You Need to Know

By Rabinder Dhillon • March 4, 2026
Going Through a Separation? Here’s What You Need to Know About Your Mortgage Separation or divorce can be one of life’s most stressful transitions—and when real estate is involved, the financial side of things can get complicated fast. If you and your partner own a home together, figuring out what happens next with your mortgage is a critical step in moving forward. Here’s what you need to know: You’re Still Responsible for Mortgage Payments Even if your relationship changes, your obligation to your mortgage lender doesn’t. If your name is on the mortgage, you’re fully responsible for making sure payments continue. Missed payments can lead to penalties, damage your credit, or even put your home at risk of foreclosure. If you relied on your partner to handle payments during the relationship, now is the time to take a proactive role. Contact your lender directly to confirm everything is on track. Breaking or Changing Your Mortgage Comes With Costs Dividing your finances might mean refinancing, removing someone from the title, or selling the home. All of these options come with potential legal fees, appraisal costs, and mortgage penalties—especially if you’re mid-term with a fixed-rate mortgage. Before making any decisions, speak with your lender to get a clear picture of the potential costs. This info can be helpful when finalizing your separation agreement. Legal Status Affects Financing If you're applying for a new mortgage after a separation, lenders will want to see official documentation—like a signed separation agreement or divorce decree. These documents help the lender assess any ongoing financial obligations like child or spousal support, which may impact your ability to qualify. No paperwork yet? Expect delays and added scrutiny in the mortgage process until everything is finalized. Qualifying on One Income Can Be Tougher Many couples qualify for mortgages based on combined income. After a separation, your borrowing power may decrease if you're now applying solo. This can affect your ability to buy a new home or stay in the one you currently own. A mortgage professional can help you reassess your financial picture and identify options that make sense for your situation—whether that means buying on your own, co-signing with a family member, or exploring government programs. Buying Out Your Partner? You May Have Extra Flexibility In cases where one person wants to stay in the home, lenders may offer special flexibility. Unlike traditional refinancing, which typically caps borrowing at 80% of the home’s value, a “spousal buyout” may allow you to access up to 95%—making it easier to compensate your former partner and retain the home. This option is especially useful for families looking to minimize disruption for children or maintain community ties. You Don’t Have to Figure It Out Alone Separation is never simple—but with the right support, you can move forward with clarity and confidence. Whether you’re keeping the home, selling, or starting fresh, working with a mortgage professional can help you understand your options and create a strategy that aligns with your new goals. Let’s talk through your situation and explore the best path forward. I’m here to help.